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[The Guru = Reporter Suji Byun] An analysis warns that long-term costs for Americans from a war with Iran could reach $1 trillion (approximately 1,473 trillion KRW), as expanded military spending plus reconstruction and compensation obligations strain U.S. public finances.
On April 14, the Department of Defense told Congress that U.S. and Israeli operations against Iran have incurred roughly $11.3 billion (approximately 17 trillion KRW) in costs over six days since Feb. 28.
Linda Bilmes of the Harvard Kennedy School said the overall bill for the Iran conflict could climb to $1 trillion (approximately 1,473 trillion KRW).
She estimated average daily costs at about $2 billion (approximately 3 trillion KRW) over roughly 40 days and said those figures must account not only for ammunition and troop operations but also for the loss and replacement of military assets.
Bilmes noted the Pentagon often values equipment at historical book value, which understates current replacement costs. She argued the officially reported $11.3 billion (approximately 17 trillion KRW) likely approaches $16 billion (approximately 24 trillion KRW) when assessed against real-world replacement prices.
She added that an interceptor missile runs about $4 million apiece (approximately 5.9 billion KRW), while an Iranian drone costs roughly $30,000 (approximately 44 million KRW) — a disparity that makes missile defense especially costly.
Fiscal pressures are expected to increase. Additional expenses will include sustained U.S. force posture in the Middle East, infrastructure repair for Gulf partners, and medical care and disability compensation for an estimated 55,000 service members. Long-term health costs could rise further if troops face toxic exposures or other environmental hazards.
The White House is pushing to expand the defense budget to $1.5 trillion (approximately 2,210 trillion KRW), the largest proposed increase in U.S. military spending since World War II.
That total does not include a separate war supplemental the Pentagon has requested. Regardless of whether Congress approves that request, lawmakers could add at least $100 billion a year (approximately 147 trillion KRW) in additional spending.
Such increases would further strain the U.S. national debt. Borrowing to cover these costs amid much higher debt levels and elevated interest rates compared with the Iraq war era would magnify fiscal pressure. Financing the conflict with debt could tack on billions in interest and shift the burden to future generations.
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