Translation result.
Democratic Party candidate Choo Mi-ae is being priced at a 99% chance of winning the Gyeonggi Province governorship on Polymarket, the world’s largest decentralized prediction market.
On the afternoon of June 2, Polymarket’s “2026 Gyeonggi governor — winner” market showed Choo’s probability at 99%, while her rival, People Power Party candidate Yang Hyang-ja, stood at 1%. Those probabilities reflect the market’s pricing for the final field of candidates after primaries and through any runoffs and the general election.
The market’s total trading volume — including bets on prospective entrants and primary contenders — exceeded 6,161,000,000 KRW (approximately $4,620,750). Trades backing Choo’s victory amounted to roughly 1,329,500,000 KRW (approximately $997,125).
Traders staking real funds on the platform are, in effect, treating Choo’s victory as the most likely outcome.
Polymarket allows users to bet real capital, typically using crypto assets such as the USDC stablecoin (USD Coin), to predict the outcomes of future events. Markets cover topics from elections and economic indicators to sports and international affairs, and the market prices are interpreted as implied probabilities. Analysts say Polymarket has gained influence because it can reflect shifts in expectations faster than traditional polls — as seen in markets for the U.S. presidential race and the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook.
The platform has recently hosted prediction markets on local elections in South Korea and other countries. However, these markets do not constitute official analysis or statistics; critics warn they can resemble gambling and may pose legal issues.
/Kim Hyun-woo kimhw@incheonilbo.com
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