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South Korea’s Political Crisis: Will the Ruling Party Win the 2026 Elections?

Daniel Kim Views  

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Emergency-declaration failure, impeachment fallout cited as factors behind People Power Party’s weakness

제9회 U.S. and Japanese outlets predicted the ruling Democratic Party would hold the advantage in the 9th nationwide local elections and the National Assembly by-elections held on the 3rd.

The Associated Press wrote, “This election is a test of public sentiment one year into President Lee Jae-myung’s administration,” and said it expects the Democratic Party to win more seats than the People Power Party. AP added that the main opposition remains mired in confusion roughly a year and a half after former President Yoon Seok-yeol’s failed declaration of martial law and his impeachment.

Bloomberg also framed the vote as President Lee’s first nationwide test, saying the ruling party could expand its influence depending on the outcome, while warning that the president could face political constraints if the main opposition succeeds in rebuilding.

The New York Times described the local elections as both a referendum on the president’s popularity and a test for the beleaguered conservative opposition, predicting a Democratic victory. It noted that although the People Power Party won these local contests four years ago, its standing weakened after former President Yoon’s emergency martial law declaration at the end of 2024.

Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei) reported that the ruling party leads in polls aided by a rising KOSPI, while the People Power Party continues to suffer the fallout from the failed martial law move and Yoon’s impeachment. Nikkei cautioned, however, that South Korean races can still shift late due to unexpected developments or last-minute turnout among core supporters.

Meanwhile, voters will elect 16 metropolitan governors, 16 education superintendents, 227 city/county/district chiefs, 933 metropolitan assembly members, and 3,035 local assembly members in this round of local elections. Fourteen National Assembly by-elections will be held nationwide as well, including contests in Pyeongtaek (Gyeonggi) and Buk-gap (Busan).

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