Will Trump Cut U.S. Troops in South Korea? Insights from Stimson Center’s Kelly Grieco

On February 9, Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, addressed Korean correspondents during a briefing at the think tank’s Washington, D.C. headquarters.

Grieco forecasted that the Trump administration would likely pursue a reduction in U.S. forces stationed in South Korea.

She noted that discussions about altering the U.S. military posture on the Korean Peninsula have been ongoing since Trump’s second term began. Grieco stated, “There’s a strong possibility we’ll witness attempts to downsize troop numbers and scale back the U.S. military footprint in Korea.”

◇ Grieco: Potential Cuts to Heavy Army Units in South Korea… OPCON Transfer as Key Indicator of Significant Shift

Grieco elaborated that heavily armored Army units would likely be the primary targets for reduction. “We’ve definitely seen indications pointing in this direction,” she said.

She also highlighted that despite being labeled as “model allies” in the National Defense Strategy (NDS), South Korea and Europe are facing the most aggressive push for troop reductions.

During the February 9 briefing in Washington, D.C., Grieco discussed the potential for the U.S. to reduce its Army presence in South Korea while possibly bolstering Air Force or Navy capabilities. She revealed that Pentagon officials have conflicting views on Air Force matters.

“Some officials argue that establishing additional air bases in South Korea would create a valuable foundation for potential dispersed operations,” Grieco explained. “Others contend that these bases would be ineffective, believing South Korea wouldn’t permit their use during wartime.”

She noted the disagreement over the utility of air bases in South Korea, despite its similar proximity to Taiwan as Japan.

However, Grieco expressed doubt about the likelihood of actual troop reductions, stating, “This administration talks a big game, but struggles with execution. There’s a clear gap between intention and implementation.”

Grieco identified the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) as a crucial indicator of structural changes in U.S. forces in South Korea, pledging to monitor for substantial progress.

Also present at the February 9 briefing was Min-young Lee, another senior fellow at the Stimson Center.

◇ Lee: Trump-Kim Jong Un Summit Unlikely Without U.S. Concessions on Denuclearization… North Korea’s 9th Party Congress in Focus

Lee, who oversees the North Korea-focused website 38 North, expressed skepticism about the possibility of a Trump-Kim Jong Un meeting during the President’s planned April visit to China. “Personally, I believe it’s highly unlikely unless the U.S. softens its stance on denuclearization,” she stated.

Lee pointed out the conflicting messages on denuclearization within the U.S. government. “While official security documents omit mentions of denuclearization, government officials continue to assert it as the ultimate policy goal,” she explained.

Lee advised that to gain better insight into North Korea’s intentions, observers should closely monitor the 9th Party Congress, reportedly scheduled for late February, and the subsequent Supreme People’s Assembly. “These events will provide clarity on North Korea’s diplomatic and defense policy direction for the next five years,” she concluded.