North Korea’s Military Profits: How $14.4 Billion from Ukraine War Could Shift Economic Sanctions

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[Herald Business senior reporter Kim Tae-yeol] A new analysis estimates that North Korea’s deployments to Ukraine and arms sales to Russia may have generated as much as $14.4 billion (about 21.5 trillion KRW).

Im Soo-ho, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Strategy, put forward the estimate in a report released on the 13th. He warned that if Pyongyang collects the full value of deployment payments and weapon sales, the sanctions’ primary economic effect—reducing foreign-currency inflows—could be effectively nullified.

The institute estimates North Korea began deployments on Oct. 1, 2024, and sent personnel in four waves, totaling more than 20,000 troops, including combat and engineering units. Satellite imagery also detected signs that Pyongyang exported munitions to Russia—such as artillery shells, multiple-rocket launchers, self-propelled guns and ballistic missiles—shipped in containers even before those deployments.

Im estimated North Korea’s foreign-currency earnings from arms exports and deployments between August 2023 and December of last year at roughly $7.67 billion to $14.4 billion. At the high end, that would exceed 21.5 trillion KRW.

Direct revenue tied to deployments—troop wages and death benefits—was estimated at about $620 million (roughly 928 billion KRW). If current trends continue, deployments alone could yield about $560 million a year (roughly 839 billion KRW). However, Im noted that payments confirmed so far likely represent only about 4–19.6% of the total proceeds his estimate projects.

He cautioned that confirmed payments are limited to visible, physical goods that are easy to observe by eye or satellite. Much of the compensation for deployments and weapons sales, he said, likely came—or will come—in forms that are difficult to detect from space, such as sensitive military technologies or precision components and materials.