South Korea’s Military Control Could Shift by 2027

Translation resultMilitary authorities say they could complete the third-stage Full Mission Capability (FMC) verification within a year and are pushing to draft a roadmap ahead of this year’s U.S.-ROK Security Consultative Meeting (SCM). That raises the prospect that wartime operational control (OPCON) could transfer as early as the end of next year.A Defense Ministry official told reporters on the 20th that once this year’s Stage 2 Full Operational Capability (FOC) verification sets the target year for OPCON transfer, Stage 3 FMC testing will begin immediately. The official added that the FMC evaluation and verification by the future Combined Forces Command — the final gate for OPCON transfer — could be completed within a year.If the FMC verification is finished, the defense ministers of both countries would recommend a specific transfer date to their presidents. The government says policy- and political-level evaluation and verification can be conducted in parallel for FMC, which is why it believes an OPCON transfer could occur as early as the end of next year.Seoul is reportedly considering a scenario in which the two defense ministers present 2027 as the target year at October’s SCM, complete the FMC evaluation and verification within a year, and then propose a specific transfer date in 2027 at the following year’s SCM.The key challenge remains aligning timing between Seoul and Washington. The South Korean government wants to move as quickly as possible, while U.S. military leaders are taking a more conservative approach to whether conditions for transfer are fully met. To close that gap, Seoul is pushing to develop a roadmap with Washington ahead of this year’s SCM to accelerate the process.On post-transfer roles, the Defense Ministry said the United States would lead nuclear operations while South Korea would lead conventional operations and provide support. Those details are slated for discussion within the Nuclear Consultative Group’s nuclear-conventional integration (CNI) body.The ministry also said the Korea-U.S. Integrated Defense Dialogue (KIDD) officially placed “divided management” of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) under UN Command jurisdiction on the agenda, and that U.S. counterparts showed greater understanding of the proposal. Seoul had previously proposed that, within the DMZ’s southern sector — up to 2 km south of the Military Demarcation Line — areas north of South Korea’s southern wire remain under UN Command control, while areas south of the wire fall under South Korean military jurisdiction. Officials briefed U.S. counterparts on those DMZ details in advance to secure the issue’s inclusion on the KIDD agenda.