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A new poll finds Democratic Party Rep. Jeon Jae-su leading People Power Party Mayor Park Hyung-joon outside the margin of error in a hypothetical head-to-head contest for Busan mayor ahead of the June 3 local elections. However, Jeon’s previously two‑digit advantage has narrowed to single digits, signaling a tightening race.
The polling firm Yeoreonjosa-kkot conducted an automated phone survey (ARS) of 1,004 Busan residents aged 18 and older on April 13–14. In a one-on-one matchup, Jeon received 49.9% and Park 41.2%. The 8.7 percentage‑point gap lies beyond the ±3.1 percentage‑point margin of error but has fallen below the 10‑point threshold.
Analysts say the numbers indicate Jeon has retained an edge while giving Park a clearer path to close the gap. They note that recent developments that clarified aspects of ongoing investigations may have contributed to the narrowing.
Centrist voters stood out in the results. Among moderates, Jeon led with 57.9% to Park’s 34.5%, a 23.4‑point advantage. Because centrist swing voters are a pivotal variable in the general contest, analysts say that margin suggests the overall outcome will be difficult to overturn quickly.
The multi‑candidate scenario shows a similar pattern. Jeon polled 48.7% to Park’s 38.7%, a 10.0‑point gap, while Reform Party candidate Jeong I‑han trailed at 2.9%. The figures underscore the limited appeal so far of a third‑camp candidacy.
Party support remains close: the Democratic Party polled 45.7% and the People Power Party 40.0%, putting them within the margin of error. Approval for President Lee Jae‑myung’s performance stood at 59.1% positive and 37.7% negative.
Overall, the results send a mixed signal: Jeon maintains a stable lead, but Park has gained momentum that could narrow the race further. The contest now hinges on shifts among centrist voters and whether a third‑camp candidacy can broaden its support.
The poll, released April 17, was conducted via ARS using wireless virtual numbers. The response rate was 7.4%, and the margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
For full details, visit the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.
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