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2026 경기도지사 선거: 초접전의 승부를 예측하는 방법은?

Daniel Kim Views  

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Kim Kyung-hee, Deputy Political Editor

Sometimes a contest appears overwhelmingly lopsided. Like a matchup between experts and amateurs, you can often predict the winner before it even begins.

But not every contest plays out that way. A trailing contender can turn an apparent loss into a victory in an instant, and a brief lapse by the leader can hand the opponent an opening to reverse the outcome.

Sports illustrate this most clearly. With two outs in the bottom of the ninth, fortunes can change on a single swing.

Beyond sports, elections are the clearest example of contests that remain undecided until the very end.

Elections are democracy’s flower and its essential mechanism. In them, neither victory nor defeat is guaranteed. That was true in the Gyeonggi gubernatorial race. In the 8th local elections, the contest in Gyeonggi was decided by one of the narrowest margins in the country. After a tense night of counting, the outcome was settled by just 0.15 percentage points.

During this campaign season, I hear two common complaints wherever I go. Some call it a “bed election,” meaning candidates who assume they’re ahead stay home and don’t meet voters. Others call it a “throw-in-the-towel election,” meaning those who believe they’re trailing have already given up and are setting their sights on the next race.

Again: in elections, no result is foregone. Only those who give their all until the last day before voters head to the polls can claim a true victory—or accept defeat with dignity. The official campaign period begins tomorrow. I hope for a hard-fought, earnest contest in which no one grows complacent and no one quits.

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