Translation result.
By Jang Yun-woo, Herald Business — Opta, the football statistics outfit, released its favorites for the 2026 World Cup in North America. It gave South Korea a 70.35% chance of reaching the Round of 32, below Japan’s 76.16% among Asian nations.
On the 1st (local time), Opta used a supercomputer to run 10,000 simulations across the tournament’s 48 teams. South Korea’s projected probabilities were: Round of 16 — 33.52%; quarterfinals — 12.74%; semifinals — 4.02%; final — 1.30%; champion — 0.36%.
In Group A, Mexico led with an 87.61% chance of making the Round of 32. The Czech Republic sat at 63.38%, below South Korea. Opta put South Korea’s odds of topping the group at 22.69% — behind Mexico but ahead of the Czech Republic and South Africa.
Japan was drawn into Group F and posted a 76.16% chance to reach the Round of 32, the highest among Asian teams. Their probability of advancing to the Round of 16 was 33.47%, essentially even with South Korea’s 33.52%.
Opta’s title predictions were led by Spain (16.1%), followed by France (13.0%), England (11.2%), Argentina (10.4%), Portugal (7.0%), Brazil (6.6%), Germany (5.1%), the Netherlands (3.6%), Norway (3.5%), and Belgium (2.4%).
Hong Myung-bo’s side will play a friendly against El Salvador on the 4th.
In Group A, South Korea will meet the Czech Republic on the 12th, Mexico on the 19th, and South Africa on the 25th. The top two teams from each group, plus the eight best third-place teams across the 12 groups, will advance to the Round of 32.
This will be the first World Cup held with a 48-team format, giving third-place teams in each group a pathway into the knockout stage.
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