Is Takaiichi’s Alliance with Komeito the Key to Japan’s Constitutional Reform? Insights and Implications

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is strengthening ties between the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party, while also attempting to bring the conservative opposition party, the Democratic Party for the People, into the fold. This move is seen as an effort to secure a majority in the House of Councillors to accelerate policy initiatives.

According to the Yomiuri Shimbun on May 9th, Takaichi expressed her desire for responsibility-sharing during a TV Tokyo program the previous day. She emphasized her unchanged hope for cabinet cooperation, urging the Japan Innovation Party to collaborate. Last October, when the two parties formed a coalition, Takaichi had requested cabinet cooperation, but the Japan Innovation Party rejected her proposal. Political analysts have interpreted the Innovation Party’s stance of “extra-cabinet cooperation” as leaving room for a potential exit from the coalition.

Despite positioning itself as the “accelerator” of Takaichi’s administration during the recent House of Representatives election, the Japan Innovation Party has not clarified its position on cabinet cooperation, raising questions about its future actions. While the Innovation Party has aligned with the LDP on constitutional amendments and security issues, it has shown differences in positions on political funding regulations and the reduction of the number of lawmakers.

In this context, observers suggest that the Democratic Party for the People, which aligns with Takaichi’s policies in various aspects, could provide more stable support for future initiatives. During her first press conference after the House of Representatives election, Takaichi urged the Democratic Party for the People, stating, “If you are willing to collaborate, including forming a coalition, I will actively pursue it.” Unlike the Constitutional Democratic Party, the Democratic Party for the People supports amending the pacifist constitution and has a clear pro-nuclear stance. It is also regarded as one of the major Japanese parties more proactive about expansionary fiscal policies.

The 25 seats held by the Democratic Party for the People in the House of Councillors are also a significant factor in Takaichi’s consideration for collaboration. From Takaichi’s perspective, who stated, “I will do my best to hold a national referendum on constitutional amendments as soon as possible,” she cannot overlook these 25 seats. Currently, the LDP holds 101 seats and the Japan Innovation Party has 19 seats in the House of Councillors. If the LDP manages to incorporate the Democratic Party for the People, it could secure a majority of the total 248 seats in the House of Councillors. However, it remains short of the 166 seats needed for constitutional amendments, indicating that additional support is still necessary.